Seasonal Outlook

Updated: 15 February 2024

Monthly drought forecasts:

Referring to the global NMME rainfall forecast, below average rainfall is predicted for southern part of the LMB during March 2024 covering mainly south-eastern Cambodia and Viet Nam; similar prediction goes for April plus a bit less than average rainfall in some area of Thailand in the central area; while during May the forecast indicates below average rainfall over the northern part covering Laos and some areas of Thailand and the 3S area of the southern region of the LMB. 

Figure 1: The monthly daily average forecasts for March, April, and May 2024

ENSO Predition and Trends:

The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP of NOAA indicates that currently the equatorial sea surface temperature (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The ENSO is now at El Nino Advisory, meaning the LMB is still receiving some impacts from the El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

Figure 2: CPC/IRI Model Predictions of ENSO from January 2024