Seasonal Outlook

Updated: 02 May 2024

Monthly drought forecasts:

Referring to the global NMME rainfall forecast, much below average rainfall is predicted for the whole LMB area in May. North-eastern Cambodia, middle and southern Laos and eastern Thailand are likely receiving below average rainfall in June and July, while Cambodia is forecasted to be the wettest area which is likely receiving above average rainfall in June and July. The forecast also indicates that the LMB might receive less than average rain sepcifically in the middle and south-eastern regions and southern Laos is likely the driest area in the region.

Figure 1: The monthly daily average forecasts for March, April, and May 2024

ENSO Predition and Trends:

The Climate Prediction Center/NCEP of NOAA indicates that currently the equatorial sea surface temperature (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The ENSO is now at El Nino Advisory, meaning the LMB is now receiving some signficant impacts from the El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (60% chance).

Figure 2: CPC/IRI Model Predictions of ENSO from April 2024

The majority of the climate models indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral during April-june 2024 and a transition to La Nina during July-September 2024.